crabflip stakes exactly one thing: the favorite, in sports, esports, elections, and geopolitics markets where the other side is priced like a longshot. That bias (we call it H8) held up on a sealed test of 880 past markets. Below is how it's doing on markets that hadn't happened yet: every pick, wins and losses, nothing removed.
Since Sep 20, 2026. 95% confidence interval on the edge: -7.9pp to +6.2pp. Several picks often come from one match (game winner, handicap, totals) and win or lose together, so the interval counts matches, not picks. Status: not yet confirmed — 90 of the 385 matches we committed to before calling it. 850 picks are still open.
| entry price | picks | matches | avg price | actually won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-70c | 195 | 57 | 66¢ | 69% |
| 70-80c | 291 | 68 | 75¢ | 73% |
| 80-90c | 238 | 54 | 84¢ | 82% |
| 90-100c | 17 | 10 | 92¢ | 76% |
Paper trades: simulated entries at the live ask plus slippage and Polymarket's taker fee, settled on the real outcome. No real money.
The founder's own Polymarket account, every position closed since Sep 28, 2026 (when crabflip switched to staking H8 only), including any bet not placed through crabflip. 15 positions still open (-$17.05 unrealized). A small sample: read it as a progress report, not proof.
| closed | market | bet | entry | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PARI Universe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGames Total: O/U 2.5 | No | 86¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | LoL: Solary vs Valerion (BO5) - EMEA Masters PlayoffsGames Total: O/U 3.5 | No | 88¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Palermo: Ivan Gakhov vs Yanaki Milev | No | 79¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Villena: Daniil Glinka vs Gauthier OnclinVillena: Completed Match: Daniil Glinka vs Gauthier Onclin | No | 83¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | India vs. Uruguay - More MarketsIndia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 | No | 86¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands - More MarketsKazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: Faroe Islands O/U 2.5 | No | 80¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands - More MarketsKazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: Kazakhstan O/U 2.5 | No | 76¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group StageMap Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) | No | 71¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group StageMap 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | No | 86¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Samsun: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Carole MonnetLucrezia Stefanini vs. Carole Monnet: Total Sets O/U 2.5 | No | 84¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | India vs. Uruguay - More MarketsIndia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half | No | 79¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | India vs. Uruguay - More MarketsSpread: Uruguay (-2.5) | No | 81¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | India vs. UruguayWill India vs. Uruguay end in a draw? | No | 86¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands - More MarketsKazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: Both Teams to Score in First Half | No | 76¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands - More MarketsSpread: Faroe Islands (-1.5) | No | 78¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Dota 2: Blasterbl vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - PARI Universe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsDota 2: Blasterbl vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner | No | 77¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | India vs. Uruguay - More MarketsIndia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 | No | 83¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | India vs. Uruguay - More MarketsIndia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 4.5 | No | 69¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | India vs. Uruguay - More MarketsIndia vs. Uruguay: India O/U 0.5 | No | 75¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | India vs. Uruguay - More MarketsIndia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 | No | 70¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | India vs. Uruguay - More MarketsIndia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score | No | 75¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | India vs. Uruguay - More MarketsIndia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 | No | 77¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | India vs. Uruguay - More MarketsSpread: Uruguay (-5.5) | No | 86¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | India vs. Uruguay - More MarketsSpread: Uruguay (-4.5) | No | 75¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands - More MarketsSpread: Kazakhstan (-1.5) | No | 87¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe IslandsWill Faroe Islands win on 2026-10-06? | No | 74¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe IslandsWill Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands end in a draw? | No | 71¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe IslandsWill Kazakhstan win on 2026-10-06? | No | 65¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | China PR vs. Tajikistan - More MarketsChina PR vs. Tajikistan: Tajikistan O/U 1.5 | No | 75¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | China PR vs. Tajikistan - More MarketsChina PR vs. Tajikistan: China PR O/U 2.5 | No | 80¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | China PR vs. Tajikistan - More MarketsChina PR vs. Tajikistan: China PR O/U 1.5 | No | 69¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group StageMap Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) | No | 86¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group StageMap Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) | No | 67¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | No | 68¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Korea Republic vs. Uzbekistan - More MarketsKorea Republic vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score | No | 82¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | China PR vs. Tajikistan - More MarketsChina PR vs. Tajikistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | No | 74¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | China PR vs. Tajikistan - More MarketsSpread: Tajikistan (-1.5) | No | 81¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | No | 76¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | China Open: Sinja Kraus vs Nikola BartunkovaSet 1 Winner: Sinja Kraus vs Nikola Bartunkova | No | 87¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | China Open: Sinja Kraus vs Nikola BartunkovaChina Open: Completed Match: Sinja Kraus vs Nikola Bartunkova | No | 83¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Villena: Felix Balshaw vs Joel SchwaerzlerVillena: Completed Match: Felix Balshaw vs Joel Schwaerzler | No | 82¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands - More MarketsKazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: Both Teams to Score in Second Half | No | 87¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands - More MarketsKazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: Faroe Islands 1st Half O/U 0.5 | No | 69¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands - More MarketsKazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: Kazakhstan 1st Half O/U 0.5 | No | 66¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands - More MarketsKazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: Faroe Islands O/U 1.5 | No | 77¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands - More MarketsKazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: Kazakhstan O/U 1.5 | No | 74¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands - More MarketsKazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | No | 79¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands - More MarketsKazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 3.5 | No | 87¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands - More MarketsKazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 2.5 | No | 68¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Korea Republic vs. Uzbekistan - More MarketsKorea Republic vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 | No | 82¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | China PR vs. Tajikistan - More MarketsChina PR vs. Tajikistan: Tajikistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 | No | 66¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | China PR vs. Tajikistan - More MarketsChina PR vs. Tajikistan: Both Teams to Score | No | 70¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | China PR vs. Tajikistan - More MarketsChina PR vs. Tajikistan: O/U 2.5 | No | 77¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | China PR vs. Tajikistan - More MarketsSpread: China PR (-1.5) | No | 88¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | China PR vs. TajikistanWill Tajikistan win on 2026-10-06? | No | 79¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | China PR vs. TajikistanWill China PR vs. Tajikistan end in a draw? | No | 70¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Dota 2: HULIGANI vs CyberHero (BO3) - PARI Universe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGame Handicap: CH (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5) | No | 70¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group StageMap 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | No | 68¢ | lost |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Wuning 3: Alibek Kachmazov vs Charles BroomSet Handicap: Charles Broom (-1.5) vs Alibek Kachmazov (+1.5) | No | 73¢ | won |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Korea Republic vs. Uzbekistan - More MarketsKorea Republic vs. Uzbekistan: Korea Republic 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | No | 75¢ | won |
Data updated Wed, 07 Oct 2026 02:50:01 GMT. Past results don't predict future ones. Not financial advice — see the risk disclaimer.