crabflip started as a simple question: does a market that's gone quiet -- wide spread, thin volume, a frozen price -- actually mean anything? Most tools that answer questions like this just tell you what they found. This one also tells you what it tested and killed.
The original staleness score (the thing that made a market look “interesting” in the first place) was tested against 970 real resolved markets. It did not predict outcomes better than chance. That result is published here, not buried -- see the score caveat on every single scored play, and the full registry behind it.
One thing has actually held up: a favorite-longshot bias in esports, geopolitics, elections, and sports markets specifically priced like a classic longshot, confirmed on a sealed holdout against 880+ resolved markets. That's it. Everything else on this site is either watch-only, still accumulating data, or honestly labeled as an unproven convention.
Because a tool that only ever shows you its wins is a tool you should distrust by default. So the track record shows every pick, wins and losses, counted by match so a busy weekend can't inflate it, and says plainly when the sample is still too small to call.
Someone who wants to browse Polymarket with real discipline around bankroll and bet size, and who'd rather see an honest “we don't know yet” than a confident-sounding score with nothing behind it.