Read this before you connect a wallet or size a single trade.
Nothing on this site is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any position. crabflip surfaces observations about public Polymarket data -- a score, a price, a spread -- and every number comes with the actual evidence (or lack of it) behind it. Deciding to act on any of it is entirely yours, and the risk of doing so is entirely yours.
The staleness score (H1-H4) was tested against 970 resolved markets and found to not predict outcomes better than chance. Only one thing has real backing right now: a favorite-longshot bias in esports/geopolitics/elections/sports markets specifically priced like a longshot (H8, sealed-holdout confirmed), and it's the only thing crabflip stakes. Even that is a statistical tilt across many matches, not a prediction about any single one, and its live forward test is still short -- see the track record. Past results, paper or real, don't predict future ones.
Prediction markets are real-money, all-or-nothing instruments. A position can resolve to zero. Kelly-based sizing reduces ruin risk over many bets, it does not eliminate loss on any single one. Only ever risk money you can genuinely afford to lose in full.
Anything labeled a paper trade risked zero real capital. A winning paper trade is evidence the underlying idea might work, not proof it will work for you, at your size, at the price you'd actually get filled at.
Market data comes from Polymarket's public API; live scores and streams come from ESPN, MLB's Stats API, Twitch, Kick, and TradingView. crabflip doesn't control any of these, doesn't guarantee their accuracy or uptime, and isn't affiliated with any of them.
See also: terms, privacy policy. Questions: contact.